The Rapid Rate of Progress

This past year and a half has been a blur as far as technology updates. Nvidia has launched into the stratosphere with AI companies needing their latest breakthroughs to keep up with AI's rapid growth and the public's need for a never-ending stream of new products and constant updates. It's almost dizzying at times. 

Last week, I was writing about Kling (an AI video model made in China and only available to those with a Chinese phone number) before Luma Dream Machine dropped and we in the States got access to it right away. Dream Machine is brilliant. It was at or near what I was seeing from the Kling and Sora videos. I quickly made a few myself. This is an AI image I generated last year. I used Dream Machine for the video and Pika for the background noise. I would have just snatched the audio and removed the Pika watermark if I were going to use it for anything other than as an example. 

Then everything changed yet again when Runway showcased their new model Gen-3. Based on what I have seen it is more creator-friendly than Sora and on par with their outputs, even better than those of Dream Machine, which I feel bad for because it is also a wonderful AI video tool. However, Runway will become my default model once we actually have access. That is until someone else comes along and blows Gen-3 out of the water. Until then, not only does it create great video 1,000 times better than Gen-2, but it's faster, you can create text, and there is also the lip-synch tool you can use with the video you generate. This video below is 100% generated with Gen-3 and the lip-synch tool. 

While it is not perfect, it may be good enough to be a starting point for me to start taking AI video tools seriously. I am not sure you could make an entire full-length live-action AI-only movie using just Gen-3, but this is lightyears better than what we all had to suffer through up until we first saw Sora's outputs. Check out Runway's Website for Gen-3 to take a look at some of the video samples.

The hits kept coming this week as Hedra, another AI video tool with lip-synch, was released. For my test run with this tool, I used one of the early Dall-E 3 generations of Thomas Edward Downs from my re-released illustrated version of Michaelmas. It's good, however, it feels like we will need to wait until the next update for it to be a tool that can be used professionally. That said, I have seen much better examples of Hedra since its release than the one I created below. 

On Wednesday, ElevenLabs released Voiceover Studio. You can take a video without sound and add voiceovers and sound effects. And you can use those voices to create conversations without video, say for a podcast.

For most people, these are just cool new temporary distractions. New ways to create cute little TikTok videos for their followers. For me, someone who has been writing stories for twenty years, these tools are something else entirely. I am drawn back to a time when I thought I could create short films to sell larger stories. 

Over the past year, I watched countless sketchy AI clips and pieced together dodgy AI short films. These people were trying to do what I had done all those years ago with real film. I could not chase that trend because the results were not good enough for me to put my name on it. No one who was not following the AI Video space would want to watch them. I grew to loathe these videos by late December, and by January the whole community began to show its frustrations at the limitations. Then Sora started to drop videos in February, yet only sharing the tool with people in Hollywood. Until last week we had been stuck dreaming of Sora and lamenting the unrealistic AI video that dominated this space for well over a year. 

Dream Machine is amazing, but it is Runway's Gen-3 and ElevenLabs Voiceover Studio that have me dreaming like I am back in my short film days. So, what does that mean? 

What it means is that I am continuing to work on the two-part illustrated novel series, planning a graphic novel, but I now have the tools at my disposal to do so much more. Tools that make me rethink things.

Over the past few months, I spent time working on a pitch package for a TV series that I then reached out to Hollywood about. I am not dialed in like I was back when I was making short films. For the most part, I have kept my expectations in check since 2009. Up until last year, I thought most of the spec screenplays I had written over the past 20 years would go largely unread and that no films or TV series would ever become of them. 

That all changed last year, as a new hope started to take root in my imagination. New dreams began to blossom. I started to envision how things might go with the rapid expansion of AI. I even rewrote a TV series so it could adapt along with the changes in AI. Immersive entertainment is the way of the future, even if sales for the amazing yet ridiculously overpriced Apple Vision Pro have ground to a halt. 

While I have been unable to persuade anyone to option my TV series, that doesn't mean I'm going to toss it into the library along with all the other spec stories I have written. I see now that the market for buying anything has dried up in a big way, and this was not a good time to try and sell such an ambitious project that has no pre-existing IP. The financial effects of the Covid years and all the strikes last year have streamers clutching their purse strings, afraid to take chances. 

No worries. Not like I haven't faced rejection before. Only now I no longer have to toss this story into a dusty heap along with all the others. Now I can start to develop the story myself. I had included an AI-generated storyboard for the opening sequence in the pilot with the pitch deck I sent around, but I was reluctant to create an AI trailer using all that wobbly 4-second stuff that was available at the time. Images have progressed a lot faster over the past year and a half than Video up until now.

With the advancements from Luma and Runway I can do a lot. Can I create an entire episode using AI video? No, I don't think so. However, I know for a fact that I can create a fairly good trailer. While I had been reluctant to jump into the AI video waters when the outputs were so poor. These are a 1,000 times better and I can't not jump in now. 

This is exciting in several ways. Not only will I eventually have a trailer for my TV series, but I will also be adept at using the tools by the time I am done, and new tools will be ready by the time I'm done as well. Who knows, maybe they will be good enough that I can just start work on doing the whole damn series. 

In addition, with ElevenLabs Voiceover Studio I can also create the entire pilot episode for the podcast that is part of the TV series. What do I mean? Well, I mentioned that I had developed this series to be something that could be augmented by AI and the trend of immersive entertainment. The podcast is hosted by two characters in the TV series. They are not main characters and only play more of a background role in one of the three main stories that run throughout the first season. However, their podcast looks into the mysteries in the small town. So, I decided to develop a fictional podcast that could stand alone from the TV series while also enhancing it.

These are two exciting new AI projects that I look forward to starting work on. Initially, they are meant to help me try and sell the series and have it produced in a traditional way on film. However, times are changing and if I can't sell this series to a streamer then, if AI keeps advancing at its current pace, I may be able to create the whole damn thing by myself. I don't want to have to do this, but it is likely the future for storytelling. So, I am not afraid to be a pioneer in this new art form either. But it has to look and feel real. I have seen people over the past year dive into creating dodgy AI videos and fall in love with what they were doing so much that they were blind to the actually limitations. If regular people can't enjoy it then I don't want to be wasting my time on it. 

This is why a trailer using these updated tools and a 30-minute (audio-only) pilot episode for the podcast seem like an acceptable option at this time. This will not only be great practice for me with these tools, but the trailer and the pilot can be used to pitch the series. I may or may not make them publicly available because I will be contacting producers with them. 

I don't want to be releasing anything to the public that is not of the highest quality. That's why I do not think that even these updated amazing tools can capture and hold the public's attention for 30 let alone 120 minutes. Not yet. They bring us one step closer, but we are not quite at the point where I can work on my own with these tools to create a proper movie. 

However, one way some people will be able to use these updated tools is to augment a live-action production. I also think it may be possible to create an animated film that people will enjoy once Gen-3 is released. That would be HUGE. But live-action will take a little longer. I saw a few good animated shorts over the past few months that were made with the last-gen AI video tools. I mentioned last summer and I still believe it is true today that the first film people will watch and enjoy that is 100% AI-generated will be animated.

Do I have material that I could use in an animated film? Of course. Can I do the current TV series using animation? Yes, but... I would like that to be in live action. However, there are three stories interwoven in the TV series. Maybe I could tell one of the stories through animation in the trailer. Yeah, I kind of like that idea. I have a lot to think about as far as the trailer before I start generating scenes. 

Exciting times. And as I am finishing this up another AI update has dropped. While it's not another video model, Anthropic just released Claude 3.5 Sonnet. 

This will put more pressure on OpenAI, Google, Meta, XAI and others to keep pace. Google and OpenAI each made big shows over a month ago and have yet to release all that they promised. Tick tock you're getting lapped on the products you haven't even released in full yet. Good on you Anthropic for keeping the pressure on and continuing to accelerate towards AGI. 

Last year, I made a promise to myself to try and keep up with all the AI advancements and it has been like a rollercoaster. There was a bit of a break around the holidays, and even into the new year. However, over the past two months things have started to gain speed. TBH I am having trouble keeping up and trying to get work done. Once I get deeper into these multiple projects I may struggle to keep up, but I'll try nonetheless. 

To sum up. The tools are now here that people can use to begin work on building their so-called media empires. My own plans will start with stories that existed before AI was a twinkle in my eye. We'll see over the next few months how much progress I can make using these new and improved tools to create in a wide variety of media: illustrated novels, graphic novels, trailers, and a podcast. Thanks for reading. 

The Old and The New

Despite my concerns about how much AI will help me gain attention for my work, I am proceeding to make plans. This past weekend, I started going through my library of written stories and some of the stories I have planned to write in the future.

My top priority is still the two-part novel series I abandoned several years back to work on a few collaborative TV series scripts. One of which I fell head over heels in love with. The same one I have been querying folks about recently. It is ideal for this moment we find ourselves in and I wrote it to reflect this moment. With one eye still on that TV series, my main focus shifts to the novel series and the future. While I settle into the rewriting process and start adding a few AI images to illustrate some of the pages, I am also taking a macro view of the future in my free time. 

During a review this weekend I created a document and separated it into two parts: "Old" and "New." The "Old" section is for those stories that have already been written, while the "New" section is for projects I have been thinking about but have yet to write. I then created two columns for each section: "Graphic Novels" and "Film/ Television." 

While I now know that creating "Graphic Novels" is something I can 100% do with the help of AI image generators like Midjourney, I cannot yet make Films and Television Episodes using AI that the public at large would be willing to consume. However, this will be possible soon based on what we have already seen. 

How long will it take before I, as an individual, have access to such tools? That is my biggest concern. OpenAI has been pimping out its video tool Sora to Hollywood elites and established artists. We found out about Sora in February yet no one outside of that small circle has been given access. My fear is that only Hollywood will get access to the best features. 

Kling is a new Chinese AI video model that is similar to Sora. They promoted the ability to make 2-minute videos. However, people who have gotten access can only create 5-second clips. This is exactly what I am worried about. You cannot make anything worthwhile using 5-second clips. This is what Pika and Runway have been doing for a year. And I am more than a little reluctant to use a Chinese company's AI video model. Other AI video tools have been rumored like Google's Veo, another Chinese tool called Vidu, and it sounds like Stable Diffusion and Runway are about to drop new or improved tools. There is apparently at least one other mystery AI video tool that some people have signed an NDA not to discuss.

I worry that Sora and all these other tools will do the same thing as Kling and only allow us to create 5-second clips. Sora has shown that it can create minute-long clips, but I wonder if only Hollywood will have access to that and we plebs will be stuck with 5-second clips that are only good for making TikTok or Youtube clips. Eventually, we will all be able to make our own Films and TV Series, but who the hell knows when that will be. I am not sure you can make a proper movie or TV show right now even if you had full access to these tools. There are still distortions and character consistency is still a major issue as well. Until those things are fixed and we are allowed to create at least 20 to 30-second clips I won't be able to create at a level of quality that I need to be able to provide to the public something actually worth watching. 

Okay. Back to my list. I can see all of these stories -- the 11 screenplays I pulled from my library, and the 9 new tales I want to tell -- could be created as AI Films or TV Series. I mean that's how I wrote the older stories in the first place. However, since I don't know when I can use those tools, or when they will be good enough to allow me to create films and TV Series on my own, I decided that for my previously written screenplays, I could create seven Graphic Novels, one Film, and three TV series using various AI tools. Since things are still fluid concerning these tools, I reserve the right to change that list as AI Video tools improve and should I get proper access to them. 

While I still have the one Novel Series to release with illustrations, I think Graphic Novels will be the format I settle into away from Film and TV until things improve. There are still a few novels in me, though I might reserve that format for my possible auto-biography or stories that just can't be told any other way. I learned a lot throughout this literary period. Gained a lot of confidence as well. However, my passion has always been film. Ever since I was in my mid-20s movies have been my passion. 

TV series only entered my thought process once I started writing anthology tales that were too long for a single movie, which happened to coincide with the rise of streaming services. I hate commercials with a passion. God only knows how much of my life has been wasted watching stupid commercials, or how much of my brain's compute has been used to memorize some of the more annoying ones. For me, ad-free streaming episodes are a lot like a movie experience. Even if an episode is only 30 to 60 minutes in length. You get an uninterrupted chapter. And I like that a lot. The fact that I, a lowly scribe who has been writing non-stop for over twenty years, can have total control over a film or TV series is exciting and a bit terrifying. 

I have joked recently that I want to create a media empire. However, it was my longtime writing partner who suggested this after I asked him to read through the pitch package for my recent TV Series. So the idea has stuck, not because of that one TV Series, which would be amazing if I could get it produced the traditional way, but because I am looking at my library of unproduced spec scripts in a new way. 

I am a dreamer, so you'll have to forgive my desire to look beyond what seems possible at this moment. I can see it all as clearly as the foliage on the trees outside my window. If I think back a few months those same trees were bare. This emerging AI video technology is like the seasons changing from winter to spring, and my old screenplays are like those bare trees starting to bud with the warming weather. Eventually, they will emerge and become leaves and part of the delightful foliage that makes up the tree canopy outside my window.

As far as future projects, I only put nine on the list. However, I have no less than ten notebooks to go through that likely contain several other ideas that may eventually make that list. So it will continue to grow as I work. 

I don't have a large following online because I have refused to pay Elon Musk a penny just to have a blue check on Twitter/ X, and I don't really like any of the other social media sites. Facebook now reminds me of Myspace. TikTok and Instagram are for videos and images, not words. BlueSky and Threads are largely vacant versions of Twitter. With 21 projects to work on, I have better things to do than do the social media dance across platforms. Give me information, let me comment and share, and I'm good. 

Once I get closer to releasing more stuff, I'll get out there and shake my tail feathers a little more. And, the eventual, continued release of work with the help of AI tools may help me get more eyes on it. But there are hard yards yet to cross before that is even possible. For now, it is just the dream of a dreamer waiting for the tools he needs to make those dreams a reality Thanks for reading. 

One more thing. Right after I dropped this post LUMA dropped "Dream Machine" a Sora and Kling-like video generator. Unfortunately, it only offers 5-second clips, but I like how clean the examples have been. I animated the image I created at the top of the post. Check out Luma here for FREE!

 

Will AI Change Everything Or Will It Be The Same Only Different?

I am starting to have doubts about how much AI will benefit me as a creative person. This time last year, I was just getting my beak wet, but my imagination was soaring with how it would creatively benefit me. While I have said for a long time that I write what I want to read or see play on a screen, deep down I'd like others to take some enjoyment out of the process as well, and maybe even make some money off of the hard work I've put in and the sacrifices I have made. 

Self-publishing books has almost run its course for me. What started as a personal challenge revealed a lot about not only myself but the business of books. It is tough as hell to sell books. You first have to have a great book, and then you have to stand out and be recognized amongst all the other books. When you self-publish it is almost impossible to stand out, especially now after the newness of the self-publishing craze has died out. 

Now think about Movies. Independent movies have always been a tough sell. And now, even blockbuster movies made for 100s of millions of dollars are having a hard time breaking even. This time last year I could see how AI would give me superpowers. The thing is that it also gives everyone else creative superpowers. Most of whom have never lifted a finger in an attempt to create worlds for themselves before AI, let alone done so to entertain others. And yet, within a year or two everyone will be able to do just that. 

Those who have been keeping up with the progress of generative AI and have seen the demos for all the new products know that massive change will wash over the general public soon. Many of those in Hollywood who have been fortunate enough to get access to Sora can see that this technology will change the business forever. Those of us who have been paying attention since February know exactly what I mean. The results are stunning and will only get better.  

At that time, I was knee-deep in preparing to query Hollywood about a TV show I had been working on. But, it was plain to see that Sora would change everything once people had access to it. I didn't let that deter me from my task, contacting others about the incredible TV series package I had put together. In fact, I worked into my pitch just how I envisioned AI tools could help with the post-production marketing of the series and may even be able to augment what had been shot after things were completed. I didn't want to suggest that any new tools like Sora should be used in the production. Those things should be left up to the production team. My job is to lay out the road map for the series. All I need is one person to believe in my story and the big ideas I have laid out. "It's hard out here for a pimp."

The most important part of my process is coming up with a story and then putting in the work to write the story for others. Once that is done, this is where AI would be massively helpful to someone like myself. Most people who are not authors or screenwriters will need AI to help them write stories, therefore they will be unable to copyright them - as the copyright laws stand now. That might be my only leg up on the masses who would be able to create just about anything with a few prompts. But, if I can eliminate the need to convince others, who are busy with other projects and in constant contact with other writers who they actually know and have worked with in the past, then I could focus on actually using my storytelling skills to create a film or tv show with tools like Sora. I'd rather work with people the old-fashioned way, but they have to want to work with me as well, and I can't force people to buy my work. Unlike most people, I would be able to copyright the stories I would want to use in partnership with Sora-type tools because I would have written them, and maybe that is the window of opportunity for me. Maybe. 

With each email I send and get no response my heart breaks a little. Not for myself, don't pity the Pitters, but for the work and the people it might touch, inspire, or somehow affect. I look forward to using AI as yet another creative means to an end. It feels like I am an explorer awaiting a ship that is being built. Soon enough I'll be off exploring new lands. I've sent thousands of emails through the years. It's like water off a duck's back at this point. I know my efforts are usually in vain because they largely have been for twenty years, which is fine. That's the way it is. Sometimes you catch a break but more often than not you will have wasted time, energy and passion only to be ignored.

If I had been more involved in the business over the past twenty years I might be more conflicted about using AI tools. However, I spent much of last year during the strikes and the rise of Generative AI wrestling with my conscience about its use. And recently I have had time to reflect on all the blood, sweat, and tears I have put into projects over the past twenty years with 90% of people unwilling to even respond to an email. And I feel empowered for the first time in a long time. 

I will not hesitate to bypass people in order to get my stories in front of an audience. Hopefully, those AI tools will be available soon so I can get trained up and put them to use ASAP. I've gained a lot of experience over the past two decades and learned even more about patience. In the meantime, I'll keep writing and sending personalized emails to those whose work I respect and would love to work with in creating movies and TV shows. 

I never dreamed of having a media empire when I started writing, I have just kept plodding away at creating stories in different formats. But, with the help of AI, I may be able to create dozens of movies, TV shows, and graphic novels in a short span of time, and all of the stories will be copyrighted. There are likely thousands of people like myself who have been writing for decades and only publishing or putting onto screen a few of the works they have actually created. In fact, if the technology is good enough that will be one of my goals-- a media empire. My ambitions are usually bigger than what I can achieve but then I am a dreamer and always think big. 

Once I have actually completed my first ready-for-consumption production I will have to deal with marketing and sales. Cringe. At least I will be on the backend of production and not stalled out waiting like a jackass for people to respond to an email. I have been reluctant to call producers and directors about the TV series at this point-- even though I have a few phone numbers, but once I have a TV show or movie in the can you bet your ass I'll be on the phone using all my sales skills. Regardless, it will still be a tough task to earn people's attention.

This is where I am starting to have doubts. Not in my own abilities to tell a good story or that the technology might not be good enough. It's that the technology likely will be good enough and I believe I will be able to create all the stories I decide to pull from my library of unpublished works. However, the marketplace will become over-saturated and I will face a similar problem that I face today: getting people's attention and earning their interest. The good thing is that the work will be completed and I won't have any regrets about stories sitting on a shelf because I could not get anyone to help me make them into movies or TV shows. But they might very well be stuck on a cloud unwatched next to millions of other unwatched movies and TV shows. I'm not sure which is worse, querying dozens of people with a well-written story whose plan for the first season is ideal for a number of streaming services with only a few responses, or creating the TV series using AI and no one watches it. Both are tragic. 

I've always said that I write what I want to read or watch because it does not yet exist. But if everyone is doing that and not consuming what anyone else creates then that is pretty damn depressing. And it probably won't be good for society if we just stay in our own imaginary bubbles without taking in new information. I hope that doesn't happen. I like what other people create and I always will, but I also like what I create as well. I may create it because it is something that I would want to read or watch, but I use that as a barometer because what I really want is to create something that others might enjoy. I don't want to sit around at night and read or watch my stories. That sounds vain and fucking boring. I hope we don't become a society that sits around quasi-creating movies or TV shows with a simple prompt custom-made just for us from scratch. Storytelling is something that is shared with others, even if we may experience it on our own in our own homes. We then go talk about it with others. 

I can hear the conversations with friends in the future. "I generated and binge-watched this amazing cop show series this weekend. I programmed it to be like The Shield  and NCIS: Los Angeles." Will people even be able to send that show to their friends so they can watch it or will it just be something that you can watch? Can it be shared with the world? Who makes money off of it? Do people get quasi-famous for prompting something that they had very little actual input in? So many questions. What I fear most is the loss of shared experience, which is the point of stories going all the way back to cave art. There are things we can learn from each other that we may not have learned on our own. 

The writing of a story is the act I love most, inspired by personal experiences and what I have learned about the world. An AI will do much of the same but without the personal human experiences of its own. That seems to be the possible barrier that these tools may struggle to pass. Blade Runner touched on this subject. They may become humanlike but may never be able to become truly human. But then we may become more machine-like as we look to expand on our own mental limitations. 

Once a lot of entertainment is AI generated there may have to be a notification system informing viewers how much of a story was created by a human. This might tell a viewer or reader if it has been copyrighted and how much was manufactured by an AI-based upon a prompt or prompts. It will likely get to a point where it won't matter as much because the AI will be a better storyteller than most people. However, there will always be a need to know if what we are consuming comes from the soul of a flesh and blood person who has lived a human life or if it is from an AI that has been trained to simulate those experiences. 

It's tricky because eventually we will reach AGI and we've no idea if that will be a net good thing for society as well as storytelling or a net bad thing. Until then, I will try, however futile my efforts may be, to create the stories that do not exist that I would want to read or watch hoping that you might too. Thanks for reading.